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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

PITCHING IN NORTHERN PREMIER LEAGUE PREMIER DIVISION

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Radcliffe 41 29 3 9 90   1 51.1% 24.5% 24.4% 92.2 
 2. Macclesfield Town 41 25 5 11 80   1 68.3% 18.8% 12.9% 82.5 
 3. Marine 41 24 7 10 79   1 51.3% 24.4% 24.3% 81.2 
 4. Hyde United 41 20 10 11 70   1 45.5% 25.5% 29.0% 71.9 
 5. Ashton United 42 20 10 12 70   0 41.6% 25.9% 32.5% 70.0 
 6. Ilkeston Town 42 20 6 16 66   0 42.9% 25.8% 31.2% 66.0 
 7. Lancaster City 40 18 8 14 62   2 38.0% 26.1% 35.9% 65.5 
 8. Gainsborough Trinity 41 19 6 16 63   1 44.7% 25.5% 29.9% 65.1 
 9. Whitby Town 41 18 8 15 62   1 38.1% 26.1% 35.8% 63.7 
 10. Guiseley 41 18 7 16 61   1 36.9% 26.0% 37.1% 62.6 
 11. Morpeth Town 42 16 8 18 56   0 34.0% 26.0% 40.1% 56.0 
 12. FC United of Manchester 42 16 5 21 53   1 32.2% 26.0% 41.7% 54.7 
 13. Matlock Town 42 16 5 21 53   0 33.6% 26.0% 40.4% 53.0 
 14. Bamber Bridge 41 12 11 18 47   1 28.7% 25.4% 45.9% 48.6 
 15. Workington 41 11 11 19 44   1 24.7% 24.8% 50.5% 45.5 
 16. Basford United 41 9 10 22 37   1 27.7% 25.4% 46.8% 38.6 
 17. Bradford Park Avenue 41 8 9 24 33   1 27.5% 25.3% 47.1% 34.3 
 18. Stafford Rangers 40 9 3 28 30   2 23.6% 24.5% 52.0% 32.6 
 19. Atherton Collieries 41 7 4 30 25   1 17.8% 22.2% 60.0% 26.0 

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