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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE SOUTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Yeovil Town 45 29 8 8 95   1 54.5% 24.2% 21.3% 96.9 
 2. Worthing 46 26 6 14 84   0 50.5% 25.1% 24.4% 84.0 
 3. Chelmsford City 46 24 12 10 84   0 50.7% 25.1% 24.2% 84.0 
 4. Maidstone United 46 24 11 11 83   0 48.8% 25.4% 25.8% 83.0 
 5. Braintree Town 46 23 12 11 81   0 48.0% 25.5% 26.5% 81.0 
 6. Bath City 46 20 13 13 73   0 40.5% 26.4% 33.1% 73.0 
 7. Farnborough 46 20 12 14 72   0 43.2% 26.2% 30.6% 72.0 
 8. Hampton and Richmond Borough 46 20 12 14 72   0 36.7% 26.5% 36.8% 72.0 
 9. Slough Town 46 18 14 14 68   0 41.9% 26.5% 31.6% 68.0 
 10. St. Albans City 46 20 8 18 68   0 40.5% 26.3% 33.2% 68.0 
 11. Torquay United 46 19 7 20 64   0 37.9% 26.4% 35.7% 64.0 
 12. Chippenham Town 46 16 14 16 62   0 37.7% 26.4% 35.9% 62.0 
 13. Weston-super-Mare 46 17 8 21 59   0 33.0% 26.5% 40.5% 59.0 
 14. Tonbridge Angels 46 15 13 18 58   0 35.4% 26.4% 38.2% 58.0 
 15. Truro City 46 15 10 21 55   1 31.2% 26.4% 42.3% 56.4 
 16. Welling United 46 12 18 16 54   0 35.6% 26.5% 38.0% 54.0 
 17. Weymouth 45 12 17 16 53   1 33.2% 26.6% 40.2% 53.9 
 18. Eastbourne Borough 48 14 11 23 53   0 33.3% 26.6% 40.2% 53.0 
 19. Hemel Hempstead Town 46 13 11 22 50   0 26.2% 25.5% 48.3% 50.0 
 20. Taunton Town 47 11 16 20 49   0 25.4% 25.4% 49.2% 49.0 
 21. Dartford 46 12 10 24 46   0 27.7% 25.7% 46.7% 46.0 
 22. Havant and Waterlooville 46 10 7 29 37   0 23.8% 25.0% 51.2% 37.0 
 23. Dover Athletic 46 4 15 27 27   0 18.3% 22.8% 58.9% 27.0 

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