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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Swindon Town 36 21 6 9 88   10 47.1% 26.1% 26.8% 105.5 
 2. Plymouth Argyle 37 20 8 9 85   9 50.2% 25.6% 24.2% 100.9 
 3. Crewe Alexandra 37 20 9 8 86   9 47.4% 26.1% 26.5% 100.8 
 4. Cheltenham Town 36 17 13 6 82   10 47.9% 26.0% 26.0% 99.5 
 5. Exeter City 37 18 11 8 81   9 42.1% 26.8% 31.0% 95.0 
 6. Colchester United 37 15 13 9 72   9 44.8% 26.5% 28.7% 86.4 
 7. Northampton Town 37 17 7 13 72   9 43.9% 26.6% 29.5% 85.6 
 8. Port Vale 37 14 15 8 71   9 40.9% 26.9% 32.2% 84.4 
 9. Bradford City 37 14 12 11 67   9 37.1% 27.0% 35.9% 79.1 
 10. Forest Green Rovers 36 13 10 13 63   10 35.5% 26.9% 37.6% 75.9 
 11. Salford City 37 13 11 13 62   9 37.2% 27.0% 35.8% 74.5 
 12. Walsall 36 13 8 15 60   10 35.7% 26.9% 37.3% 73.5 
 13. Crawley Town 37 11 15 11 60   9 38.2% 26.9% 34.9% 73.0 
 14. Newport County 35 12 10 13 59   11 34.4% 26.9% 38.7% 72.3 
 15. Grimsby Town 37 12 11 14 59   9 33.5% 26.9% 39.6% 70.1 
 16. Cambridge United 37 12 9 16 56   9 29.4% 26.5% 44.1% 65.7 
 17. Leyton Orient 36 10 12 14 54   10 31.0% 26.7% 42.2% 65.5 
 18. Mansfield Town 36 9 11 16 49   10 34.2% 26.9% 38.9% 62.1 
 19. Carlisle United 36 9 12 15 49   10 32.2% 26.9% 41.0% 62.1 
 20. Oldham Athletic 37 9 14 14 51   9 33.1% 26.9% 40.0% 62.0 
 21. Scunthorpe United 37 10 10 17 50   9 31.5% 26.8% 41.7% 61.9 
 22. Morecambe 37 7 11 19 40   9 26.3% 26.2% 47.6% 49.5 
 23. Macclesfield Town 37 7 15 15 29   9 24.8% 25.8% 49.4% 38.4 
 24. Stevenage 36 3 13 20 28   10 23.1% 25.4% 51.5% 38.3 

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