Change:

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Lincoln City 39 22 13 4 79   7 54.4% 24.7% 20.9% 92.1 
 2. Bury 38 20 11 7 71   8 51.2% 25.3% 23.5% 85.6 
 3. Milton Keynes Dons 39 20 9 10 69   7 45.0% 26.5% 28.4% 79.6 
 4. Mansfield Town 39 17 15 7 66   7 46.4% 26.2% 27.4% 77.2 
 5. Tranmere Rovers 38 18 10 10 64   8 43.7% 26.6% 29.7% 75.4 
 6. Exeter City 38 17 10 11 61   8 44.7% 26.5% 28.8% 74.3 
 7. Forest Green Rovers 39 16 13 10 61   7 40.7% 26.7% 32.5% 71.5 
 8. Carlisle United 39 17 7 15 58   7 39.2% 26.7% 34.0% 67.7 
 9. Colchester United 39 16 9 14 57   7 34.8% 27.0% 38.2% 65.7 
 10. Swindon Town 38 14 12 12 54   8 38.6% 26.9% 34.6% 65.6 
 11. Newport County 37 15 7 15 52   9 35.7% 27.0% 37.3% 64.0 
 12. Crewe Alexandra 39 15 8 16 53   7 36.7% 26.9% 36.4% 63.8 
 13. Stevenage 39 15 9 15 54   7 34.3% 26.8% 38.9% 63.4 
 14. Northampton Town 39 12 16 11 52   7 39.9% 26.8% 33.3% 62.9 
 15. Oldham Athletic 37 12 12 13 48   9 39.5% 26.8% 33.7% 60.5 
 16. Grimsby Town 39 14 7 18 49   7 32.3% 26.7% 41.0% 58.0 
 17. Cheltenham Town 39 13 9 17 48   7 34.4% 26.8% 38.8% 56.4 
 18. Cambridge United 38 11 9 18 42   8 30.7% 26.6% 42.7% 51.4 
 19. Morecambe 39 11 9 19 42   7 29.7% 26.5% 43.8% 50.9 
 20. Crawley Town 39 12 7 20 43   7 27.3% 26.3% 46.5% 50.9 
 21. Port Vale 39 10 11 18 41   7 27.3% 26.3% 46.4% 48.1 
 22. Macclesfield Town 38 8 10 20 34   8 27.9% 26.3% 45.8% 42.7 
 23. Yeovil Town 39 9 9 21 36   7 22.0% 25.0% 53.0% 42.6 
 24. Notts County 39 7 12 20 33   7 26.5% 26.2% 47.3% 40.2 

Change division:
Premier League | Championship | League One | League Two | National League | National League North | National League South | Isthmian Premier | Northern Premier | Southern Premier (Central) | Southern Premier (South) |