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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Stockport County 44 26 11 7 89   2 56.3% 24.0% 19.8% 92.5 
 2. Mansfield Town 44 23 13 8 82   2 51.7% 25.0% 23.3% 85.6 
 3. Wrexham 44 24 10 10 82   2 51.9% 24.9% 23.2% 85.0 
 4. Milton Keynes Dons 44 22 8 14 74   2 46.4% 26.1% 27.5% 77.5 
 5. Crewe Alexandra 44 19 13 12 70   2 37.0% 26.7% 36.2% 72.5 
 6. Barrow 43 18 14 11 68   3 36.5% 26.8% 36.7% 71.6 
 7. Crawley Town 44 20 6 18 66   2 38.5% 26.8% 34.7% 69.3 
 8. Doncaster Rovers 43 19 7 17 64   3 42.7% 26.6% 30.7% 68.7 
 9. Walsall 44 18 11 15 65   2 37.7% 26.8% 35.6% 67.8 
 10. Gillingham 44 18 9 17 63   2 35.3% 26.7% 38.0% 65.1 
 11. AFC Wimbledon 44 16 14 14 62   2 36.4% 26.7% 36.9% 64.8 
 12. Harrogate Town 44 17 11 16 62   2 35.8% 26.6% 37.5% 64.5 
 13. Bradford City 43 16 12 15 60   3 36.5% 26.8% 36.7% 64.0 
 14. Morecambe 44 17 9 18 60   2 33.7% 26.7% 39.7% 63.1 
 15. Notts County 44 17 7 20 58   2 35.6% 26.6% 37.7% 61.3 
 16. Newport County 44 16 7 21 55   2 32.4% 26.6% 41.0% 57.6 
 17. Tranmere Rovers 44 16 6 22 54   2 33.7% 26.7% 39.6% 56.7 
 18. Accrington Stanley 44 15 9 20 54   2 31.0% 26.4% 42.6% 56.0 
 19. Swindon Town 44 14 11 19 53   2 31.4% 26.6% 42.0% 55.7 
 20. Salford City 44 12 11 21 47   2 31.5% 26.6% 42.0% 49.6 
 21. Grimsby Town 44 10 16 18 46   2 29.6% 26.4% 44.0% 48.4 
 22. Colchester United 43 11 11 21 44   3 29.9% 26.4% 43.7% 47.5 
 23. Sutton United 44 9 13 22 40   2 29.2% 26.4% 44.4% 42.0 
 24. Forest Green Rovers 44 9 9 26 36   2 23.6% 25.2% 51.1% 38.0 

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