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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Stockport County 20 13 3 4 42   26 55.4% 24.1% 20.4% 91.5 
 2. Mansfield Town 19 9 9 1 36   27 51.4% 25.0% 23.6% 85.1 
 3. Wrexham 20 10 7 3 37   26 49.7% 25.4% 24.9% 83.0 
 4. Crewe Alexandra 19 10 6 3 36   27 44.5% 26.3% 29.2% 78.9 
 5. Barrow 20 10 7 3 37   26 42.0% 26.5% 31.4% 76.6 
 6. Notts County 20 11 3 6 36   26 43.5% 26.3% 30.2% 76.6 
 7. Milton Keynes Dons 19 7 6 6 27   27 45.4% 26.2% 28.4% 70.9 
 8. Morecambe 18 8 3 7 27   28 40.4% 26.9% 32.8% 67.8 
 9. Swindon Town 20 8 6 6 30   26 36.8% 26.7% 36.5% 66.0 
 10. Gillingham 20 10 1 9 31   26 35.1% 26.7% 38.2% 65.6 
 11. Accrington Stanley 20 9 2 9 29   26 37.1% 26.7% 36.1% 65.0 
 12. AFC Wimbledon 19 7 7 5 28   27 35.5% 26.7% 37.8% 64.0 
 13. Bradford City 20 7 5 8 26   26 37.3% 26.8% 35.9% 62.4 
 14. Newport County 20 7 4 9 25   26 36.1% 26.9% 37.1% 60.1 
 15. Salford City 20 6 4 10 22   26 38.5% 26.8% 34.7% 59.4 
 16. Crawley Town 19 8 3 8 27   27 30.2% 26.4% 43.3% 58.3 
 17. Harrogate Town 20 7 3 10 24   26 31.5% 26.5% 42.0% 56.0 
 18. Doncaster Rovers 19 7 2 10 23   27 29.2% 26.2% 44.5% 53.6 
 19. Walsall 19 5 6 8 21   27 29.0% 26.2% 44.8% 51.8 
 20. Grimsby Town 20 4 8 8 20   26 31.5% 26.4% 42.1% 51.3 
 21. Tranmere Rovers 20 5 3 12 18   26 30.1% 26.4% 43.5% 48.5 
 22. Colchester United 20 6 2 12 20   26 27.2% 26.1% 46.7% 47.9 
 23. Sutton United 20 3 5 12 14   26 25.5% 25.7% 48.8% 39.9 
 24. Forest Green Rovers 19 4 3 12 15   27 22.4% 24.9% 52.6% 38.8 

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