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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Accrington Stanley 43 28 6 9 90   3 56.4% 24.2% 19.4% 95.6 
 2. Luton Town 44 24 12 8 84   2 53.0% 25.3% 21.7% 87.6 
 3. Wycombe Wanderers 44 22 12 10 78   2 46.0% 26.6% 27.4% 81.8 
 4. Exeter City 44 23 8 13 77   2 44.3% 26.8% 28.9% 80.3 
 5. Notts County 44 21 13 10 76   2 44.8% 26.7% 28.4% 79.1 
 6. Coventry City 43 21 8 14 71   3 43.7% 26.8% 29.5% 76.0 
 7. Lincoln City 43 19 14 10 71   3 44.1% 26.9% 29.0% 74.9 
 8. Mansfield Town 44 17 17 10 68   2 40.8% 27.2% 32.0% 71.3 
 9. Carlisle United 44 16 15 13 63   2 40.8% 27.2% 32.0% 66.1 
 10. Swindon Town 44 19 7 18 64   2 35.0% 27.3% 37.6% 66.0 
 11. Cambridge United 43 16 12 15 60   3 37.4% 27.3% 35.3% 64.5 
 12. Colchester United 44 16 13 15 61   2 36.5% 27.4% 36.1% 63.6 
 13. Newport County 42 14 15 13 57   4 33.5% 27.3% 39.2% 61.9 
 14. Crawley Town 44 16 10 18 58   2 31.3% 27.1% 41.6% 60.4 
 15. Stevenage 44 13 13 18 52   2 31.2% 27.0% 41.7% 54.0 
 16. Cheltenham Town 44 13 12 19 51   2 32.8% 27.3% 39.9% 53.4 
 17. Crewe Alexandra 44 15 5 24 50   2 31.8% 27.1% 41.2% 52.7 
 18. Forest Green Rovers 43 13 7 23 46   3 31.3% 27.0% 41.7% 49.7 
 19. Yeovil Town 43 12 10 21 46   3 30.2% 27.0% 42.8% 49.5 
 20. Port Vale 44 11 14 19 47   2 32.9% 27.4% 39.7% 49.3 
 21. Morecambe 43 9 17 17 44   3 28.3% 26.6% 45.1% 47.6 
 22. Grimsby Town 44 11 12 21 45   2 24.1% 26.0% 49.9% 46.9 
 23. Barnet 44 10 10 24 40   2 26.0% 26.4% 47.6% 42.7 
 24. Chesterfield 43 9 8 26 35   3 23.0% 25.7% 51.3% 38.1 

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