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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Swindon Town 34 20 6 8 66   12 48.6% 25.9% 25.5% 87.9 
 2. Crewe Alexandra 34 19 7 8 64   12 47.3% 26.0% 26.7% 83.9 
 3. Plymouth Argyle 34 18 8 8 62   12 49.7% 25.7% 24.6% 83.5 
 4. Exeter City 34 18 9 7 63   12 44.6% 26.6% 28.8% 82.3 
 5. Cheltenham Town 33 15 12 6 57   13 45.5% 26.4% 28.0% 78.2 
 6. Northampton Town 34 16 7 11 55   12 44.6% 26.6% 28.8% 73.4 
 7. Colchester United 35 14 13 8 55   11 44.8% 26.5% 28.7% 72.5 
 8. Port Vale 35 14 13 8 55   11 40.7% 27.0% 32.3% 71.2 
 9. Bradford City 35 13 12 10 51   11 37.4% 27.0% 35.5% 65.7 
 10. Newport County 32 11 10 11 43   14 37.6% 27.1% 35.4% 62.2 
 11. Forest Green Rovers 35 12 10 13 46   11 32.8% 26.9% 40.3% 59.0 
 12. Crawley Town 35 10 14 11 44   11 36.1% 27.0% 36.8% 58.9 
 13. Salford City 35 11 11 13 44   11 34.0% 27.0% 39.1% 58.3 
 14. Cambridge United 35 12 9 14 45   11 31.5% 26.7% 41.8% 58.2 
 15. Walsall 35 12 8 15 44   11 33.8% 27.0% 39.3% 57.9 
 16. Grimsby Town 33 10 11 12 41   13 32.6% 26.8% 40.6% 56.3 
 17. Scunthorpe United 34 10 9 15 39   12 34.1% 27.0% 38.9% 55.1 
 18. Leyton Orient 35 9 12 14 39   11 30.2% 26.7% 43.1% 51.7 
 19. Carlisle United 34 8 12 14 36   12 32.7% 26.8% 40.5% 51.4 
 20. Oldham Athletic 35 8 14 13 38   11 32.5% 26.8% 40.7% 51.3 
 21. Mansfield Town 35 8 11 16 35   11 32.5% 26.8% 40.7% 48.4 
 22. Morecambe 35 7 10 18 31   11 26.8% 26.3% 46.9% 42.5 
 23. Macclesfield Town 35 7 15 13 30   11 26.8% 26.3% 46.9% 41.8 
 24. Stevenage 35 3 13 19 22   11 23.6% 25.6% 50.8% 33.0 

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