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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Chesterfield 45 30 5 10 95   1 50.8% 25.4% 23.8% 96.9 
 2. Barnet 45 25 8 12 83   1 47.1% 26.0% 26.9% 85.0 
 3. Bromley 45 22 15 8 81   1 48.9% 25.6% 25.6% 82.4 
 4. Southend United 45 21 12 12 75   1 48.7% 25.5% 25.7% 76.8 
 5. Altrincham 45 21 11 13 74   1 43.3% 26.6% 30.1% 76.2 
 6. Gateshead 44 21 9 14 72   2 42.5% 26.5% 31.0% 75.1 
 7. Solihull Moors 45 20 13 12 73   1 41.5% 26.7% 31.8% 74.7 
 8. FC Halifax Town 44 18 13 13 67   2 41.4% 26.7% 32.0% 70.0 
 9. Aldershot Town 44 19 8 17 65   2 33.0% 26.7% 40.3% 67.1 
 10. Oldham Athletic 44 15 17 12 62   2 37.9% 26.7% 35.3% 64.9 
 11. Eastleigh 45 16 11 18 59   1 34.5% 26.7% 38.8% 60.3 
 12. Rochdale 45 15 14 16 59   1 38.4% 26.7% 34.9% 60.0 
 13. Maidenhead United 45 15 13 17 58   1 34.8% 26.7% 38.6% 58.8 
 14. Hartlepool United 45 16 9 20 57   1 35.4% 26.8% 37.8% 58.6 
 15. Dagenham and Redbridge 45 14 13 18 55   1 37.5% 26.6% 35.9% 56.6 
 16. AFC Fylde 45 15 10 20 55   1 36.0% 26.7% 37.2% 56.3 
 17. Ebbsfleet United 45 14 11 20 53   1 33.4% 26.7% 40.0% 54.3 
 18. York City 45 12 17 16 53   1 33.3% 26.7% 40.0% 54.0 
 19. Wealdstone 45 14 11 20 53   1 28.3% 26.1% 45.6% 53.9 
 20. Woking 45 14 10 21 52   1 33.1% 26.7% 40.2% 53.4 
 21. Boreham Wood 45 12 15 18 51   1 32.6% 26.7% 40.7% 52.5 
 22. Kidderminster Harriers 45 11 13 21 46   1 28.3% 26.1% 45.6% 46.8 
 23. Dorking Wanderers 45 12 9 24 45   1 24.7% 25.6% 49.7% 46.1 
 24. Oxford City 45 8 9 28 33   1 19.0% 23.9% 57.1% 33.6 

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