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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE ONE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Wigan Athletic 46 29 11 6 98   0 59.2% 23.2% 17.6% 98.0 
 2. Blackburn Rovers 46 28 12 6 96   0 59.3% 23.2% 17.5% 96.0 
 3. Shrewsbury Town 46 25 12 9 87   0 43.5% 27.0% 29.4% 87.0 
 4. Rotherham United 46 24 7 15 79   0 46.9% 26.4% 26.7% 79.0 
 5. Scunthorpe United 46 19 17 10 74   0 42.0% 27.0% 31.0% 74.0 
 6. Charlton Athletic 46 20 11 15 71   0 38.5% 27.1% 34.3% 71.0 
 7. Plymouth Argyle 46 19 11 16 68   0 38.1% 27.2% 34.8% 68.0 
 8. Portsmouth 46 20 6 20 66   0 36.1% 27.2% 36.7% 66.0 
 9. Peterborough United 45 17 12 16 63   1 36.6% 27.3% 36.2% 64.3 
 10. Southend United 46 17 12 17 63   0 39.6% 27.2% 33.2% 63.0 
 11. Bradford City 46 18 9 19 63   0 32.7% 27.1% 40.1% 63.0 
 12. Blackpool 46 15 15 16 60   0 37.2% 27.3% 35.5% 60.0 
 13. Bristol Rovers 46 16 11 19 59   0 34.9% 27.2% 37.9% 59.0 
 14. Fleetwood Town 46 16 9 21 57   0 34.4% 27.3% 38.3% 57.0 
 15. Gillingham 46 13 17 16 56   0 32.8% 27.2% 40.0% 56.0 
 16. Doncaster Rovers 46 13 17 16 56   0 34.6% 27.2% 38.2% 56.0 
 17. Oxford United 46 15 11 20 56   0 33.6% 27.1% 39.3% 56.0 
 18. AFC Wimbledon 45 13 13 19 52   1 32.7% 27.2% 40.1% 53.4 
 19. Walsall 46 13 13 20 52   0 28.3% 26.7% 45.0% 52.0 
 20. Rochdale 46 11 18 17 51   0 36.8% 27.2% 36.0% 51.0 
 21. Oldham Athletic 46 11 17 18 50   0 28.9% 26.9% 44.2% 50.0 
 22. Northampton Town 46 12 11 23 47   0 25.5% 26.3% 48.3% 47.0 
 23. Milton Keynes Dons 46 11 12 23 45   0 26.3% 26.5% 47.3% 45.0 
 24. Bury 46 8 12 26 36   0 22.0% 25.3% 52.7% 36.0 

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