Change:

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE ONE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Sheffield United 38 23 9 6 78   8 51.7% 25.6% 22.7% 92.8 
 2. Bolton Wanderers 37 20 9 8 69   9 49.1% 26.1% 24.7% 84.9 
 3. Fleetwood Town 38 19 11 8 68   8 46.4% 26.6% 27.0% 81.6 
 4. Bradford City 39 16 18 5 66   7 46.4% 26.6% 27.0% 76.7 
 5. Millwall 36 16 11 9 59   10 49.9% 26.1% 24.1% 75.7 
 6. Scunthorpe United 39 18 10 11 64   7 41.1% 27.2% 31.7% 74.7 
 7. Southend United 38 16 12 10 60   8 43.1% 27.0% 29.9% 73.0 
 8. Rochdale 36 15 8 13 53   10 38.3% 27.4% 34.3% 68.3 
 9. Oxford United 37 16 7 14 55   9 40.9% 27.2% 31.9% 67.8 
 10. Bristol Rovers 39 15 12 12 57   7 38.0% 27.4% 34.7% 67.5 
 11. Walsall 39 13 14 12 53   7 38.6% 27.4% 34.0% 64.0 
 12. AFC Wimbledon 38 12 15 11 51   8 35.3% 27.3% 37.3% 62.3 
 13. Peterborough United 39 14 10 15 52   7 32.9% 27.2% 39.9% 60.7 
 14. Charlton Athletic 39 10 17 12 47   7 37.0% 27.4% 35.6% 58.3 
 15. Milton Keynes Dons 38 12 11 15 47   8 36.6% 27.4% 35.9% 57.7 
 16. Northampton Town 39 14 7 18 49   7 33.5% 27.3% 39.3% 57.6 
 17. Gillingham 39 11 12 16 45   7 29.2% 27.1% 43.7% 52.5 
 18. Bury 39 12 9 18 45   7 31.5% 27.3% 41.2% 52.4 
 19. Port Vale 36 10 11 15 41   10 28.0% 26.8% 45.2% 51.7 
 20. Shrewsbury Town 38 11 10 17 43   8 30.4% 27.1% 42.5% 51.6 
 21. Oldham Athletic 39 10 14 15 44   7 31.4% 27.2% 41.4% 51.3 
 22. Swindon Town 39 9 9 21 36   7 25.3% 26.1% 48.5% 42.5 
 23. Chesterfield 39 8 9 22 33   7 22.6% 25.7% 51.7% 39.1 
 24. Coventry City 38 5 11 22 26   8 20.8% 25.1% 54.0% 33.0 

Change division:
Premier League | Championship | League One | League Two | National League | National League North | National League South