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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE ONE

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Portsmouth 45 27 13 5 94   1 54.2% 24.1% 21.7% 95.4 
 2. Derby County 45 27 8 10 89   1 54.2% 24.1% 21.7% 91.3 
 3. Bolton Wanderers 45 25 11 9 86   1 51.6% 24.7% 23.7% 87.3 
 4. Peterborough United 44 25 8 11 83   2 48.9% 25.1% 25.9% 86.3 
 5. Barnsley 45 21 12 12 75   1 43.5% 26.1% 30.4% 76.9 
 6. Oxford United 45 21 11 13 74   1 42.5% 26.2% 31.3% 75.4 
 7. Lincoln City 46 20 14 12 74   1 48.3% 25.3% 26.4% 75.3 
 8. Blackpool 45 21 10 14 73   1 46.3% 25.7% 28.0% 74.5 
 9. Stevenage 45 18 14 13 68   1 36.3% 26.3% 37.4% 69.9 
 10. Leyton Orient 46 18 11 17 65   1 35.8% 26.4% 37.8% 66.5 
 11. Wycombe Wanderers 44 16 13 15 61   2 41.8% 26.0% 32.2% 64.4 
 12. Exeter City 45 17 10 18 61   1 37.3% 26.4% 36.3% 62.3 
 13. Wigan Athletic 45 19 10 16 59   1 41.1% 26.1% 32.8% 60.9 
 14. Northampton Town 45 17 8 20 59   1 31.9% 26.2% 41.9% 59.9 
 15. Bristol Rovers 45 16 9 20 57   1 28.8% 25.7% 45.5% 57.9 
 16. Charlton Athletic 45 11 20 14 53   1 35.7% 26.4% 37.9% 54.1 
 17. Reading 45 15 11 19 52   1 38.9% 26.4% 34.7% 53.3 
 18. Shrewsbury Town 45 13 9 23 48   1 26.8% 25.4% 47.8% 49.2 
 19. Cambridge United 44 12 10 22 46   2 27.5% 25.6% 46.9% 48.5 
 20. Burton Albion 45 12 10 23 46   1 26.4% 25.2% 48.4% 47.1 
 21. Cheltenham Town 44 11 8 25 41   2 25.1% 25.1% 49.8% 42.7 
 22. Fleetwood Town 45 9 13 23 40   1 28.7% 25.7% 45.6% 41.6 
 23. Port Vale 45 10 10 25 40   1 22.2% 24.3% 53.6% 41.3 
 24. Carlisle United 45 7 9 29 30   1 20.3% 23.6% 56.1% 30.5 

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