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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

VANARAMA NATIONAL LEAGUE NORTH

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Tamworth 46 30 8 8 98   0 53.4% 24.4% 22.3% 98.0 
 2. Scunthorpe United 47 26 10 11 88   0 50.9% 24.7% 24.4% 88.0 
 3. Chorley 47 26 8 13 86   0 47.6% 25.4% 27.0% 86.0 
 4. Brackley Town 46 25 10 11 85   0 52.2% 24.4% 23.4% 85.0 
 5. Alfreton Town 46 23 11 12 80   0 49.1% 25.2% 25.7% 80.0 
 6. Boston United 46 21 12 13 75   0 46.8% 25.5% 27.7% 75.0 
 7. Curzon Ashton 46 21 12 13 75   0 42.3% 26.0% 31.7% 75.0 
 8. South Shields 46 22 8 16 74   0 41.3% 26.1% 32.5% 74.0 
 9. Spennymoor Town 47 22 8 17 74   0 44.7% 25.8% 29.6% 74.0 
 10. Hereford 46 20 9 17 69   0 36.0% 26.3% 37.7% 69.0 
 11. Chester 46 18 15 13 69   0 45.4% 25.8% 28.8% 69.0 
 12. Buxton 47 18 11 18 65   0 38.3% 26.2% 35.6% 65.0 
 13. Scarborough Athletic 46 18 10 18 64   0 34.2% 26.3% 39.5% 64.0 
 14. Warrington Town 46 17 12 17 63   0 34.0% 26.3% 39.7% 63.0 
 15. Peterborough Sports 46 16 10 20 58   0 31.3% 26.0% 42.7% 58.0 
 16. Darlington 46 16 8 22 56   0 37.2% 26.3% 36.5% 56.0 
 17. Southport 46 16 8 22 56   0 30.5% 25.8% 43.7% 56.0 
 18. King's Lynn Town 46 13 16 17 55   0 38.2% 26.2% 35.6% 55.0 
 19. Rushall Olympic 46 15 9 22 54   0 29.4% 25.7% 44.9% 54.0 
 20. Farsley Celtic 46 13 14 19 53   0 28.0% 25.6% 46.4% 53.0 
 21. Blyth Spartans 46 13 11 22 50   0 27.2% 25.4% 47.4% 50.0 
 22. Banbury United 46 10 8 28 38   0 18.8% 22.7% 58.5% 38.0 
 23. Gloucester City 46 9 9 28 36   0 23.8% 24.6% 51.5% 36.0 
 24. Bishop's Stortford 46 6 3 37 21   0 15.7% 20.9% 63.4% 21.0 

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