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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

PITCHING IN SOUTHERN LEAGUE PREMIER DIVISION (SOUTH)

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Chesham United 43 29 6 8 93   0 53.2% 24.2% 22.6% 93.0 
 2. Salisbury 42 23 10 9 79   0 45.4% 26.3% 28.4% 79.0 
 3. Gosport Borough 42 23 9 10 78   0 45.4% 26.3% 28.4% 78.0 
 4. Bracknell Town 42 21 5 16 68   0 45.1% 26.4% 28.6% 68.0 
 5. Merthyr Town 42 20 7 15 67   0 41.3% 26.5% 32.2% 67.0 
 6. Hungerford Town 42 18 10 14 64   0 41.1% 26.3% 32.6% 64.0 
 7. Dorchester Town 43 17 10 16 61   0 36.9% 26.6% 36.5% 61.0 
 8. Hendon 42 14 16 12 58   0 35.8% 26.8% 37.4% 58.0 
 9. Poole Town 43 16 5 22 53   0 32.0% 26.0% 42.0% 53.0 
 10. Basingstoke Town 42 15 8 19 53   0 31.9% 26.0% 42.1% 53.0 
 11. Tiverton Town 42 14 10 18 52   0 36.1% 26.8% 37.1% 52.0 
 12. Swindon Supermarine 42 13 10 19 49   0 36.8% 26.5% 36.7% 49.0 
 13. Beaconsfield Town 43 13 10 20 49   0 31.7% 26.0% 42.4% 49.0 
 14. Hayes and Yeading United 42 11 13 18 46   0 35.5% 26.8% 37.7% 46.0 
 15. Harrow Borough 42 10 9 23 39   0 25.6% 24.8% 49.6% 39.0 

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