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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

PITCHING IN ISTHMIAN LEAGUE PREMIER DIVISION

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. AFC Hornchurch 42 31 7 4 100   0 61.2% 21.2% 17.6% 100.0 
 2. Chatham Town 42 24 7 11 79   0 48.6% 25.1% 26.2% 79.0 
 3. Enfield Town 42 22 11 9 77   0 50.3% 24.7% 25.0% 77.0 
 4. Horsham 42 23 7 12 76   0 47.2% 25.2% 27.6% 76.0 
 5. Wingate and Finchley 42 23 7 12 76   0 46.2% 25.2% 28.7% 76.0 
 6. Billericay Town 42 23 4 15 73   0 46.0% 25.2% 28.9% 73.0 
 7. Lewes 42 20 7 15 67   0 40.9% 25.9% 33.1% 67.0 
 8. Whitehawk 42 17 14 11 65   0 41.4% 26.0% 32.6% 65.0 
 9. Dulwich Hamlet 42 17 11 14 62   0 42.9% 25.7% 31.4% 62.0 
 10. Bognor Regis Town 42 16 14 12 62   0 41.4% 26.1% 32.5% 62.0 
 11. Carshalton Athletic 42 17 11 14 62   0 39.9% 26.1% 34.0% 62.0 
 12. Canvey Island 42 16 6 20 54   0 37.7% 25.8% 36.5% 54.0 
 13. Potters Bar Town 42 14 9 19 51   0 29.4% 25.1% 45.5% 51.0 
 14. Folkestone Invicta 42 13 11 18 50   0 33.7% 25.6% 40.7% 50.0 
 15. Cray Wanderers 42 13 11 18 50   0 34.7% 26.1% 39.2% 50.0 
 16. Cheshunt 42 12 7 23 43   0 33.6% 25.7% 40.7% 43.0 
 17. Margate 42 10 9 23 39   0 25.0% 24.2% 50.8% 39.0 
 18. Haringey Borough 42 6 9 27 27   0 20.0% 22.0% 58.0% 27.0 
 19. Concord Rangers 42 6 8 28 26   0 23.6% 23.5% 52.9% 26.0 
 20. Kingstonian 42 5 6 31 21   0 15.4% 20.2% 64.4% 21.0 

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