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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

PITCHING IN SOUTHERN LEAGUE PREMIER DIVISION (CENTRAL)

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Needham Market 41 26 7 8 85   1 47.2% 25.6% 27.2% 86.3 
 2. AFC Telford United 42 25 11 6 86   0 57.0% 24.6% 18.5% 86.0 
 3. Leamington 41 19 15 7 72   1 53.5% 24.1% 22.4% 73.5 
 4. Redditch United 41 21 7 13 70   1 42.2% 26.4% 31.4% 71.1 
 5. Stratford Town 41 21 6 14 69   1 42.2% 26.4% 31.4% 70.1 
 6. St. Ives Town 42 20 4 18 64   0 41.2% 26.4% 32.4% 64.0 
 7. Halesowen Town 41 18 8 15 62   1 34.2% 26.2% 39.6% 62.9 
 8. Nuneaton Borough 24 10 4 10 34   18 43.6% 25.7% 30.7% 62.8 
 9. Royston Town 41 17 6 18 57   1 36.6% 26.9% 36.5% 58.2 
 10. Coalville Town 41 15 10 16 55   1 41.2% 26.5% 32.3% 56.4 
 11. Leiston 41 15 10 16 55   1 35.5% 27.1% 37.3% 56.0 
 12. Barwell 41 14 12 15 54   1 38.3% 26.0% 35.7% 55.3 
 13. Stourbridge 40 14 10 16 52   2 36.9% 26.7% 36.4% 54.2 
 14. Kettering Town 41 13 9 19 48   1 33.8% 25.7% 40.5% 48.9 
 15. Alvechurch 41 12 9 20 45   1 29.7% 26.2% 44.1% 46.0 
 16. Bromsgrove Sporting 41 12 8 21 44   1 29.0% 25.6% 45.4% 45.0 
 17. Hitchin Town 42 12 7 23 43   0 27.2% 24.8% 48.0% 43.0 

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