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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET CHAMPIONSHIP

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Leicester City 44 30 4 10 94   2 57.3% 23.4% 19.3% 98.1 
 2. Ipswich Town 44 26 12 6 90   2 51.2% 25.0% 23.7% 93.7 
 3. Leeds United 45 27 9 9 90   1 54.1% 24.3% 21.6% 91.7 
 4. Southampton 45 25 9 11 84   1 47.7% 25.7% 26.6% 85.1 
 5. Norwich City 45 21 10 14 73   1 44.1% 26.1% 29.8% 74.8 
 6. West Bromwich Albion 45 20 12 13 72   1 41.8% 26.3% 31.9% 73.7 
 7. Hull City 45 19 13 13 70   1 39.5% 26.5% 33.9% 71.6 
 8. Middlesbrough 45 19 9 17 66   1 44.1% 26.1% 29.8% 67.8 
 9. Coventry City 44 17 13 14 64   2 41.9% 26.3% 31.8% 67.0 
 10. Preston North End 44 18 9 17 63   2 34.4% 26.5% 39.1% 64.9 
 11. Cardiff City 45 19 5 21 62   1 28.6% 25.9% 45.5% 63.7 
 12. Bristol City 45 17 11 17 62   1 39.0% 26.4% 34.5% 63.4 
 13. Swansea City 45 15 12 18 57   1 37.4% 26.5% 36.1% 58.6 
 14. Sunderland 45 16 8 21 56   1 32.4% 26.4% 41.2% 57.4 
 15. Millwall 45 15 11 19 56   1 33.0% 26.4% 40.6% 57.1 
 16. Watford 45 13 17 15 56   1 34.6% 26.5% 38.8% 57.0 
 17. Stoke City 45 14 11 20 53   1 32.6% 26.4% 40.9% 54.3 
 18. Queens Park Rangers 45 14 11 20 53   1 31.1% 26.3% 42.6% 53.9 
 19. Sheffield Wednesday 45 14 8 23 50   1 35.3% 26.5% 38.3% 51.3 
 20. Blackburn Rovers 45 13 11 21 50   1 30.8% 26.2% 43.0% 50.6 
 21. Plymouth Argyle 45 12 12 21 48   1 28.9% 25.9% 45.1% 49.2 
 22. Birmingham City 45 12 11 22 47   1 26.4% 25.7% 48.0% 47.9 
 23. Huddersfield Town 45 9 18 18 45   1 26.6% 25.6% 47.8% 45.7 
 24. Rotherham United 45 4 12 29 24   1 17.4% 22.5% 60.1% 25.0 

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