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This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

In the graph, the dark shaded area shows the current points that each team has in the league table. To the right of that, each team's expected points range is shown - based on current ELO scores, each team has a 95% probability of finishing with a points total between the two lighter shaded areas, a 66% probability of finishing between the slightly darker shaded areas, while the expected points value is highlighted in the darker colour in the middle of the range.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL SKY BET LEAGUE TWO

 Proj. Club Actual   Projected
Played Won Drawn Lost Points   To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Exp. Pts. 
 1. Stockport County 46 27 11 8 92   0 56.3% 23.7% 20.0% 92.0 
 2. Wrexham 46 26 10 10 88   0 54.3% 24.5% 21.2% 88.0 
 3. Mansfield Town 46 24 14 8 86   0 51.9% 25.1% 23.0% 86.0 
 4. Milton Keynes Dons 46 23 9 14 78   0 47.4% 25.9% 26.7% 78.0 
 5. Crewe Alexandra 46 19 14 13 71   0 35.4% 26.7% 37.9% 71.0 
 6. Doncaster Rovers 46 21 8 17 71   0 45.4% 26.2% 28.4% 71.0 
 7. Crawley Town 46 21 7 18 70   0 39.7% 26.6% 33.7% 70.0 
 8. Barrow 46 18 15 13 69   0 34.4% 26.7% 38.8% 69.0 
 9. Bradford City 46 19 12 15 69   0 40.6% 26.7% 32.8% 69.0 
 10. AFC Wimbledon 46 17 14 15 65   0 37.3% 26.7% 35.9% 65.0 
 11. Walsall 46 18 11 17 65   0 34.2% 26.7% 39.1% 65.0 
 12. Gillingham 46 18 10 18 64   0 35.0% 26.7% 38.4% 64.0 
 13. Harrogate Town 46 17 12 17 63   0 34.4% 26.8% 38.9% 63.0 
 14. Notts County 46 18 7 21 61   0 35.1% 26.7% 38.2% 61.0 
 15. Morecambe 46 17 10 19 61   0 32.3% 26.5% 41.2% 61.0 
 16. Accrington Stanley 46 16 9 21 57   0 32.3% 26.5% 41.2% 57.0 
 17. Tranmere Rovers 46 17 6 23 57   0 33.0% 26.6% 40.5% 57.0 
 18. Newport County 46 16 7 23 55   0 29.9% 26.3% 43.8% 55.0 
 19. Swindon Town 46 14 12 20 54   0 29.9% 26.3% 43.8% 54.0 
 20. Salford City 46 13 12 21 51   0 32.7% 26.5% 40.8% 51.0 
 21. Grimsby Town 46 11 16 19 49   0 30.1% 26.3% 43.6% 49.0 
 22. Colchester United 46 11 12 23 45   0 28.0% 26.1% 45.9% 45.0 
 23. Forest Green Rovers 46 11 9 26 42   0 26.0% 25.8% 48.2% 42.0 
 24. Sutton United 46 9 15 22 42   0 30.0% 26.3% 43.7% 42.0 

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